China-Singaporean FTA Signed in Beijing
Hong Kong design to capture Czech fondness for luxury [Pinned] The State of China Trade – Outlook for 2009
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2009/01/10 15:44 | by SamChan ]
2009/01/10 15:44 | by SamChan ]
The current international financial crisis has not yet bottomed out, likely to fall into deep recession in developed countries, this dependence on foreign trade as high as 60% of China, is not optimistic about export prospects. Experts predict that in the global economy, especially the U.S. economic recovery in the short term is difficult background, the Chinese export growth for several consecutive years the situation will be reversed. At the same time, with the deteriorating situation in global trade this year, trade friction will be the severe or the most recent years.
Import and export growth may be reduced to 5%
China's export of nearly 60%, directly or indirectly, for the United States, the European Union and the Japanese market, currently the three major economies into recession, the market through other exports to make up for the resulting loss of strenuous efforts to pay at the same time, China's emerging markets and the difficulty of developing countries to increase exports also increased.
General Administration of Customs reports that the international financial crisis has spread of the real economy, foreign demand for exports to China have been shrinking to form a strong bound exports will continue to show a downward trend. In 2009, import and export downward trend will continue for some time, according to the current international and domestic economic environment is estimated that the annual import and export growth is likely to slow to below 5%. Total import and export volume in 2009 than in 2008 is expected to be dropped about 20%.
Reduction in the total exports, while exports of the overall price level will also be a certain rate of decline. State Information Center Xu life that, combined with declining demand, the basis of energy and raw material prices have fallen very sharply, the export tax rebate rate adjustment, the RMB exchange rate and other factors, is expected this year, the overall average price of China's exports will drop about 10%.
However, foreign orders will have an impact on processing trade to reduce import demand, coupled with the international prices of raw materials bulk sharp diving, domestic economic growth eased, the magnitude of the sharp decline in imports in the short term will be significantly higher than exports, so the scale of China's trade surplus will continue to maintain a high standard. Xu Pingsheng expected trade surplus in 2009 could be as high as about 330 billion U.S. dollars, higher than the year 2008 about 300 billion U.S. dollars level.
To stabilize the foreign trade, China has taken, including the increase in the export tax rebate rate, trade and investment facilitation, adjusting the cut-limited list of categories of products a series of measures and will continue to take measures to stabilize the foreign trade growth. Analysts have pointed out that the future of the export tax rebate policy should be focused on regulation and control is conducive to upgrading of the industrial structure and high-tech mechanical and electrical products, but also to represent the advanced productive forces and domestic long-term potential for development-related products to the export tax rebate policies. In addition, should also focus on developing trade in services, improve service trade promotion policies, support software, cultural and traditional Chinese medicine export of services and other key areas.
Properly handle trade friction
China's exports in response to a sharp decline at the same time, nor can we disregard the fact that under the economic crisis, the deteriorating situation in global trade, trade disputes will be a sharp increase. China University of Political Science researcher Wu Chang-Hai said that this year the situation of trade friction will be a severe or the most recent years.
China has become the anti-subsidy cases for two consecutive years up to the target country, the current trade friction is the product from the focus extended to the macro-economic policies and institutional mechanisms level. The United States and Europe in the RMB exchange rate, labor standards, intellectual property rights, industrial policies, technical barriers, food safety, customs enforcement and other areas likely to increase friction, China's focus on the sensitive part of increased security risk industries.
In fact, by the end of 2008, trade friction has been exacerbated by signs appear. China's imports of US-EU trade disputes in the auto parts after it lost the case, the United States once again appeal to the WTO, accusing China's export enterprises in disguise for the provision of subsidies. Australia has also decided to originating in China's carbon steel weld pipe combined countervailing anti-dumping investigation. Almost the same period, the European Union to 15 members in favor, 12 opposed to the adoption of members from China's collection of screw and nut products for a 5-year average of 80% of the tariff, which is so far the biggest EU anti-dumping case one.
In this regard, the Ministry of Commerce said it would through a multi-bilateral dialogue mechanisms and FTA negotiations to strengthen communication, consultations and negotiations, promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation. Chamber of Commerce through the promotion of association with foreign trade association of dialogue and consultation and strengthen cooperation in the industry. Continue to promote the countries admit that I market economy status. To strengthen industry self-regulation and corporate self-discipline, guide enterprises to adjust the export product mix, change management, avoid blind expansion and the number of simple price competition. At the same time, integration of all forces to strengthen the trade friction response. Against restrictions on China's exports an unfair practice, it is necessary to strengthen bilateral and multilateral negotiations, the active use of WTO dispute settlement mechanism.
In exchange rate policy, the experts believe that flexibility should be carefully fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate, improve the exchange rate formation mechanism, improve the exchange rate to float downward space, to prevent the crisis in the developed countries through the exchange rate pass-through to reduce the risk from exchange rate on export enterprises negative impact. Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said a few days ago, will be maintained at a reasonable and balanced level of exchange rate basically stable, not on promoting the substantial depreciation of the renminbi to stimulate exports.
In addition, with the terms of trade tend to harsh, the overall export enterprises increased credit risk. Recently released "Country Risk Report" that the export enterprises need to take a more robust business development strategy, more secure means and more complete terms of the contract, to strengthen the enterprise receivables management, concerned about the bank's credit risks, and take advantage of export credit insurance security "travel."
Import and export growth may be reduced to 5%
China's export of nearly 60%, directly or indirectly, for the United States, the European Union and the Japanese market, currently the three major economies into recession, the market through other exports to make up for the resulting loss of strenuous efforts to pay at the same time, China's emerging markets and the difficulty of developing countries to increase exports also increased.
General Administration of Customs reports that the international financial crisis has spread of the real economy, foreign demand for exports to China have been shrinking to form a strong bound exports will continue to show a downward trend. In 2009, import and export downward trend will continue for some time, according to the current international and domestic economic environment is estimated that the annual import and export growth is likely to slow to below 5%. Total import and export volume in 2009 than in 2008 is expected to be dropped about 20%.
Reduction in the total exports, while exports of the overall price level will also be a certain rate of decline. State Information Center Xu life that, combined with declining demand, the basis of energy and raw material prices have fallen very sharply, the export tax rebate rate adjustment, the RMB exchange rate and other factors, is expected this year, the overall average price of China's exports will drop about 10%.
However, foreign orders will have an impact on processing trade to reduce import demand, coupled with the international prices of raw materials bulk sharp diving, domestic economic growth eased, the magnitude of the sharp decline in imports in the short term will be significantly higher than exports, so the scale of China's trade surplus will continue to maintain a high standard. Xu Pingsheng expected trade surplus in 2009 could be as high as about 330 billion U.S. dollars, higher than the year 2008 about 300 billion U.S. dollars level.
To stabilize the foreign trade, China has taken, including the increase in the export tax rebate rate, trade and investment facilitation, adjusting the cut-limited list of categories of products a series of measures and will continue to take measures to stabilize the foreign trade growth. Analysts have pointed out that the future of the export tax rebate policy should be focused on regulation and control is conducive to upgrading of the industrial structure and high-tech mechanical and electrical products, but also to represent the advanced productive forces and domestic long-term potential for development-related products to the export tax rebate policies. In addition, should also focus on developing trade in services, improve service trade promotion policies, support software, cultural and traditional Chinese medicine export of services and other key areas.
Properly handle trade friction
China's exports in response to a sharp decline at the same time, nor can we disregard the fact that under the economic crisis, the deteriorating situation in global trade, trade disputes will be a sharp increase. China University of Political Science researcher Wu Chang-Hai said that this year the situation of trade friction will be a severe or the most recent years.
China has become the anti-subsidy cases for two consecutive years up to the target country, the current trade friction is the product from the focus extended to the macro-economic policies and institutional mechanisms level. The United States and Europe in the RMB exchange rate, labor standards, intellectual property rights, industrial policies, technical barriers, food safety, customs enforcement and other areas likely to increase friction, China's focus on the sensitive part of increased security risk industries.
In fact, by the end of 2008, trade friction has been exacerbated by signs appear. China's imports of US-EU trade disputes in the auto parts after it lost the case, the United States once again appeal to the WTO, accusing China's export enterprises in disguise for the provision of subsidies. Australia has also decided to originating in China's carbon steel weld pipe combined countervailing anti-dumping investigation. Almost the same period, the European Union to 15 members in favor, 12 opposed to the adoption of members from China's collection of screw and nut products for a 5-year average of 80% of the tariff, which is so far the biggest EU anti-dumping case one.
In this regard, the Ministry of Commerce said it would through a multi-bilateral dialogue mechanisms and FTA negotiations to strengthen communication, consultations and negotiations, promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation. Chamber of Commerce through the promotion of association with foreign trade association of dialogue and consultation and strengthen cooperation in the industry. Continue to promote the countries admit that I market economy status. To strengthen industry self-regulation and corporate self-discipline, guide enterprises to adjust the export product mix, change management, avoid blind expansion and the number of simple price competition. At the same time, integration of all forces to strengthen the trade friction response. Against restrictions on China's exports an unfair practice, it is necessary to strengthen bilateral and multilateral negotiations, the active use of WTO dispute settlement mechanism.
In exchange rate policy, the experts believe that flexibility should be carefully fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate, improve the exchange rate formation mechanism, improve the exchange rate to float downward space, to prevent the crisis in the developed countries through the exchange rate pass-through to reduce the risk from exchange rate on export enterprises negative impact. Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said a few days ago, will be maintained at a reasonable and balanced level of exchange rate basically stable, not on promoting the substantial depreciation of the renminbi to stimulate exports.
In addition, with the terms of trade tend to harsh, the overall export enterprises increased credit risk. Recently released "Country Risk Report" that the export enterprises need to take a more robust business development strategy, more secure means and more complete terms of the contract, to strengthen the enterprise receivables management, concerned about the bank's credit risks, and take advantage of export credit insurance security "travel."
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